Is southern Africa facing a food security disaster?

A rapidly growing population in southern Africa means an increasingly higher food demand. And although domestic food production is expected to rise over the next few decades in response to this need, it is unlikely that the increases will be able to keep pace. As a result, food demand will outstrip domestic food supply. A recent report from the African Futures Project shows that the widening gap between domestic food supply and demand could have serious consequences for food stability.

The region's population is expected to increase by 60% (116 million people) over the next 23 years, overtaking growth in the agricultural sector. Without drastic improvements in food production, the region will have to rely on food imports more and more. It is forecast that in 20 years' time, nearly a third of all food needed in southern Africa will be imported. This reliance on agricultural imports will make people more vulnerable to food price spikes and climate shocks (such as floods or drought) - and ultimately, more frequent domestic food shortages. This doesn't necessarily mean that southern Africa will experience a rise in hunger - but it does mean the region is likely to be less food stable.

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