Study: Climate Change's Effect on Water Resources Unpredictable
- Lynae Bresser
- Sep 11, 2016
- 1 min read
A study published in PNAS highlights the unpredictability of the impacts of climate change on water resources by comparing detailed simulations in mountain areas of Chile and Nepal.
Authors Silvan Ragettli, Walter W. Immerzeel, and Francesca Pellicciotti study the response of river flows to a significant decline in glacier areas in the Juncal catchment of Chile and the Langtang catchment of Nepal at higher spatiotemporal resolutions than any previous study. In the Andes, a 40 to 60 percent predicted decrease in runoff by 2091 to 2100 compared to levels from 2001 to 2010 is projected to lead to water shortages in nearby communities that depend on meltwater during dry summers.
In contrast, a 15 to 70 percent predicted increase in post-monsoon river flows in the Himalayas during the first half of the 21st century is projected to intensify flood conditions for downstream communities. The authors call for more small-scale data collection, stating that “smart integration of field-based studies with the catchment scale at key basins in the world has great potential and can reveal the full magnitude of the impacts of climate change on mountain water resources.”
Tomas Munita/CIFOR